In the past two weeks, the price of ice acetic acid fluctuated greatly, taking the price of the main factory in the northwest as an example, the price fell from 3150 yuan/ton to 2700 yuan/ton and then rose to 2850 yuan/ton, from a decline of 14.28% to 5.56%. The reason why the market reversal is faster is mainly due to the following factors:
1. The factory plans to overhaul more, and the market supply is expected to decline
At present, the factory has entered a period of centralized maintenance. In August, there were 6 maintenance enterprises with a total production capacity of 2.75 million tons/year, accounting for 22.45% of the total national production capacity. With the gradual landing of the planned maintenance of alkaline, the intensive maintenance curtain opened, the market supply gradually entered a downward trend, as of mid-August, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline from the recent 92.74% to 83.18%. Recently, prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and traders in the early period have successively dropped bags for safety, and some zero-mining downstream replenishment.
2. The downstream operation unexpectedly increased, and the demand has certain support
In August, the downstream of glacial acetic acid or in the off-season operation, but the recent commencement of lipid significantly increased, especially butyl acetate, with considerable profits, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start. Although the recent start of PTA has fallen, but later with the resumption of Pengwei, Jiatong is expected to start or increase; On the one hand, Shuangxin in Inner Mongolia has a maintenance plan, on the other hand, Haiquan in Fujian 200,000 tons/year new plant is put into operation, which is at a low level, so the start of construction has decreased significantly, but the demand for ice acetic acid has decreased limited.
3. The mentality of the industry is boosted, and the downstream stock sentiment is OK
After the price rise, the industry has diverged on the continuation of the price rise. At present, the supply side gradually decreases with the overhaul, although the enterprise has a certain inventory, but the downstream overall enthusiasm for taking goods is OK, as of now, there has not been a certain conflict psychology, the main downstream demand still maintains a considerable level. From the perspective of expected fundamentals, the traditional gold, silver and ten mentality holds the industry insiders or maintains a bargain buying mentality, so the subsequent market still has game space, and it is expected that the price of glacial acetic acid has room to rise, but the high inventory limit greatly pulls up the mentality.
